Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 0:2 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv won 2–0. The biggest difference was FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv's attack: 1.46 xG against 0.97 projected (+0.49).
The model against the result
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- 42%
- Draw
- 33%
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 25% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv produced 0.49 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 15
- On target
- 2
- 7
- Inside the box
- 7
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.10
Recent form
1.81 xG created 1.12 xGA
- W 2.67 created, 0.46 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- L 0.47 created, 1.39 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- D 2.05 created, 0.68 conceded against Veres Rivne
- W 2.41 created, 0.97 conceded against Kudrivka
- D 2.19 created, 2.18 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- L 1.04 created, 1.05 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
0.78 xG created 0.86 xGA
- D 1.16 created, 0.36 conceded against Oleksandria
- W 1.40 created, 0.69 conceded against Oleksandria
- D 1.16 created, 0.67 conceded against Kudrivka
- D 0.37 created, 1.42 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- D 0.34 created, 0.46 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- L 0.23 created, 1.55 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.10 | +1.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi | 42.1% | 40.1% | +2.0 pp | 2.38 |
| Draw | 32.8% | 28.4% | +4.4 pp | 3.05 |
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv | 25.1% | 31.5% | −6.4 pp | 3.98 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 50.0% | +1.3 pp | 1.95 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.7% | 50.0% | −1.3 pp | 2.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | 69.8% | +0.9 pp | 1.42 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 30.2% | −0.9 pp | 3.41 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 44.0% | −3.8 pp | 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 56.0% | +3.8 pp | 1.67 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi sample
- 20 matches
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv sample
- 6 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.