Monday, 12/10/2026 at 12:50
Full timeFC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 1:3 Zoria Luhansk
Zoria Luhansk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Zoria Luhansk's attack: 2.20 xG against 1.17 projected (+1.03). FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv produced 0.66 xG against 1.08 projected (−0.42).
The model against the result
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 31%
- Draw
- 34%
- Zoria Luhansk
- 36% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Zoria Luhansk produced 1.03 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 18
- On target
- 3
- 9
- Inside the box
- 7
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.12
Recent form
0.96 xG created 1.02 xGA
- D 1.16 created, 0.67 conceded against Kudrivka
- D 2.19 created, 0.64 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- D 0.37 created, 1.42 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- D 0.34 created, 0.46 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- L 0.23 created, 1.55 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- W 1.46 created, 1.36 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
0.84 xG created 1.52 xGA
- L 1.25 created, 0.51 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- W 0.83 created, 1.87 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- L 0.52 created, 2.56 conceded against Metalist 1925
- D 1.08 created, 0.87 conceded against Veres Rivne
- D 0.70 created, 2.31 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- L 0.68 created, 1.01 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
5 qualified edges flagged1 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +11.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.25 | +9.0% | Lost |
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv at most 1 goal | 1.44 | +1.8% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.40 | +1.5% | Lost |
| Zoria Luhansk at most 1 goal | 1.50 | +0.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv | 30.8% | 32.5% | −1.7 pp | 3.25 |
| Draw | 33.5% | 28.0% | +5.6 pp | 2.98 |
| Zoria Luhansk | 35.7% | 39.5% | −3.8 pp | 2.80 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to score | 69.0% | 68.7% | +0.2 pp | 1.45 |
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv not to score | 31.0% | 31.3% | −0.2 pp | 3.22 |
| Zoria Luhansk to score | 71.9% | 72.3% | −0.5 pp | 1.39 |
| Zoria Luhansk not to score | 28.1% | 27.7% | +0.5 pp | 3.55 |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 50.0% | +1.6 pp | 1.94 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.4% | 50.0% | −1.6 pp | 2.06 |
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 2+ goals | 29.5% | 35.5% | −6.0 pp | 3.39 |
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv at most 1 goal | 70.5% | 64.5% | +6.0 pp | 1.42 |
| Zoria Luhansk 2+ goals | 33.2% | 37.5% | −4.3 pp | 3.01 |
| Zoria Luhansk at most 1 goal | 66.8% | 62.5% | +4.3 pp | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.1% | 72.3% | −2.2 pp | 1.43 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 27.7% | +2.2 pp | 3.35 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.6% | 48.7% | −9.1 pp | 2.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.4% | 51.3% | +9.1 pp | 1.66 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv sample
- 7 matches
- Zoria Luhansk sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.