Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 13h to kick-offKarpaty Lviv – FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Karpaty Lviv
- 45%
- Draw
- 29%
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- 26%
| Karpaty Lviv | Draw | FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.22 | 3.44 | 3.85 |
- Total goals
- 2.79
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Karpaty Lviv
45% Karpaty Lviv to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 12th
- Karpaty Lviv attack v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 9th
- Karpaty Lviv defence v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.13 vs +0.30
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.59 – 1.20
- Karpaty Lviv v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Karpaty Lviv | FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.90 · 4th | 1.74 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.59 · 10th | (better) 1.17 · 6th |
| xGD / match | +0.30 · 7th | (better) +0.57 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.58 · 7th | (better) 1.72 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.13 | (better) +0.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Karpaty Lviv clean sheet
- 27%
- Karpaty Lviv 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.5%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:2
- 7.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Karpaty Lviv sample
- 20 matches
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Karpaty Lviv
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.