Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:00
27d 13h to kick-offLNZ Cherkasy – Metalist 1925
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- LNZ Cherkasy
- 31%
- Draw
- 35%
- Metalist 1925
- 34%
| LNZ Cherkasy | Draw | Metalist 1925 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.20 | 2.85 | 2.98 |
- Total goals
- 2.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score
- 47%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
34% Metalist 1925 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 3rd
- Metalist 1925 attack v LNZ Cherkasy defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 6th
- Metalist 1925 defence v LNZ Cherkasy attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.17 vs +0.82
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.01 – 1.05
- LNZ Cherkasy v Metalist 1925
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | LNZ Cherkasy | Metalist 1925 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.10 · 3rd | (better) 2.42 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.26 · 7th | (better) 0.79 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.84 · 5th | (better) +1.63 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.64 · 6th | (better) 2.23 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.82 | (better) +1.17 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 42% of the model's distribution.
- LNZ Cherkasy clean sheet
- 32%
- LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
- 27%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score: no
- 53%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.7%
- 0:0
- 12.8%
- 0:1
- 11.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- LNZ Cherkasy sample
- 20 matches
- Metalist 1925 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · LNZ Cherkasy
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Metalist 1925
- 1 match
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.