Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 15:00
33d 16h to kick-offMetalist 1925 – Karpaty Lviv
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Metalist 1925
- 55%
- Draw
- 28%
- Karpaty Lviv
- 17%
| Metalist 1925 | Draw | Karpaty Lviv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.81 | 3.57 | 6.00 |
- Total goals
- 2.55
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Metalist 1925
55% Metalist 1925 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 8th
- Metalist 1925 attack v Karpaty Lviv defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 8th
- Metalist 1925 defence v Karpaty Lviv attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.17 vs +0.13
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.67 – 0.88
- Metalist 1925 v Karpaty Lviv
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Metalist 1925 | Karpaty Lviv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.42 · 1st from 4 matches | 1.90 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.79 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.59 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.63 · 1st from 4 matches | +0.30 · 7th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.23 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.58 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.17 | +0.13 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Metalist 1925 clean sheet
- 39%
- Metalist 1925 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.5%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 11.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Metalist 1925 sample
- 20 matches
- Karpaty Lviv sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Metalist 1925
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Karpaty Lviv
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.