Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 15:00
32d 23h to kick-offObolon Kyiv – FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
Model updated 5 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Obolon Kyiv
- 34%
- Draw
- 35%
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 31%
| Obolon Kyiv | Draw | FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.98 | 2.86 | 3.18 |
- Total goals
- 2.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score
- 48%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
34% Obolon Kyiv to win
- Attack
- 16th vs 7th
- Obolon Kyiv attack v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 14th
- Obolon Kyiv defence v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.34 vs -0.20
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.06 – 1.02
- Obolon Kyiv v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Obolon Kyiv | FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.60 · 15th from 4 matches | (better) 0.71 · 14th |
| xGA / match | 2.79 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 1.09 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -2.19 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) -0.38 · 11th |
| xPts / match | 0.48 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 1.01 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.34 | (better) -0.20 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 41% of the model's distribution.
- Obolon Kyiv clean sheet
- 33%
- Obolon Kyiv 2+ goals
- 29%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score: no
- 52%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.7%
- 0:0
- 12.6%
- 1:0
- 11.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Obolon Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv sample
- 7 matches
- Home xG sample · Obolon Kyiv
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 15:30
Warnings
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.