Friday, 06/11/2026 at 12:00
Full timePolissya Zhytomyr 2:0 Veres Rivne
Polissya Zhytomyr were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 68%. They won 2–0.
The model against the result
- Polissya Zhytomyr
- 68% What happened
- Draw
- 22%
- Veres Rivne
- 9%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
2.57 xG created 0.64 xGA
- W 5.21 created, 1.06 conceded against Kudrivka
- W 1.55 created, 0.23 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- W 2.12 created, 0.44 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- D 2.64 created, 0.72 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- W 1.38 created, 1.28 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- W 2.50 created, 0.09 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
1.13 xG created 1.49 xGA
- D 1.31 created, 0.62 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- W 1.51 created, 1.58 conceded against Kudrivka
- L 1.39 created, 2.56 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- L 0.62 created, 1.62 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- L 0.58 created, 1.26 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- L 1.38 created, 1.30 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 qualified edges flagged1 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 5.50 | +22.5% | Lost |
| Polissya Zhytomyr at most 1 goal | 3.00 | +13.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | +7.3% | Lost |
| Veres Rivne to score | 2.00 | +6.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | +6.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polissya Zhytomyr | 68.4% | 74.4% | −6.0 pp | 1.46 |
| Draw | 22.3% | 16.2% | +6.0 pp | 4.49 |
| Veres Rivne | 9.3% | 9.4% | −0.1 pp | 10.73 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polissya Zhytomyr to score | 88.8% | 88.3% | +0.6 pp | 1.13 |
| Polissya Zhytomyr not to score | 11.2% | 11.7% | −0.6 pp | 8.95 |
| Veres Rivne to score | 53.4% | 46.3% | +7.0 pp | 1.87 |
| Veres Rivne not to score | 46.6% | 53.7% | −7.0 pp | 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 42.3% | +6.4 pp | 2.05 |
| Both teams not to score | 51.2% | 57.7% | −6.4 pp | 1.95 |
| Polissya Zhytomyr 2+ goals | 62.2% | 68.7% | −6.6 pp | 1.61 |
| Polissya Zhytomyr at most 1 goal | 37.8% | 31.3% | +6.6 pp | 2.64 |
| Veres Rivne 2+ goals | 14.9% | 15.6% | −0.7 pp | 6.69 |
| Veres Rivne at most 1 goal | 85.1% | 84.4% | +0.7 pp | 1.18 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | 80.8% | −1.4 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.6% | 19.2% | +1.4 pp | 4.85 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 58.9% | −6.2 pp | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 41.1% | +6.2 pp | 2.11 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Polissya Zhytomyr sample
- 20 matches
- Veres Rivne sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.