Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 12:00
Full timeVeres Rivne 1:3 Chornomorets Odesa
Veres Rivne were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. Chornomorets Odesa won 3–1.
The model against the result
- Veres Rivne
- 40%
- Draw
- 33%
- Chornomorets Odesa
- 27% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Recent form
0.97 xG created 1.30 xGA
- W 0.14 created, 0.36 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- D 0.87 created, 1.08 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- D 1.31 created, 0.62 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- W 1.51 created, 1.58 conceded against Kudrivka
- L 1.39 created, 2.56 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- L 0.62 created, 1.62 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
0.67 xG created 1.46 xGA
- W 1.01 created, 1.84 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- D 0.46 created, 0.34 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- L 0.46 created, 1.90 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- D 0.93 created, 1.75 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- L 0.31 created, 2.21 conceded against Metalist 1925
- D 0.83 created, 0.69 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
4 qualified edges flagged3 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | +5.1% | Won |
| Draw | 3.20 | +5.0% | Lost |
| Chornomorets Odesa to score | 1.53 | +3.5% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 | +3.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veres Rivne | 39.7% | 44.0% | −4.3 pp | 2.52 |
| Draw | 32.8% | 28.2% | +4.6 pp | 3.05 |
| Chornomorets Odesa | 27.5% | 27.8% | −0.3 pp | 3.64 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veres Rivne to score | 74.9% | 72.3% | +2.6 pp | 1.33 |
| Veres Rivne not to score | 25.1% | 27.7% | −2.6 pp | 3.99 |
| Chornomorets Odesa to score | 67.5% | 60.8% | +6.8 pp | 1.48 |
| Chornomorets Odesa not to score | 32.5% | 39.2% | −6.8 pp | 3.08 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 46.3% | +6.2 pp | 1.90 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.4% | 53.7% | −6.2 pp | 2.11 |
| Veres Rivne 2+ goals | 37.1% | 39.2% | −2.1 pp | 2.70 |
| Veres Rivne at most 1 goal | 62.9% | 60.8% | +2.1 pp | 1.59 |
| Chornomorets Odesa 2+ goals | 27.9% | 26.9% | +1.0 pp | 3.58 |
| Chornomorets Odesa at most 1 goal | 72.1% | 73.1% | −1.0 pp | 1.39 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | 64.5% | +7.1 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 35.5% | −7.1 pp | 3.52 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 39.2% | +2.1 pp | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.7% | 60.8% | −2.1 pp | 1.70 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Veres Rivne sample
- 20 matches
- Chornomorets Odesa sample
- 8 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Chornomorets Odesa has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.