Friday, 30/10/2026 at 17:00
Full timeShakhtar Donetsk 2:0 Obolon Kyiv
Shakhtar Donetsk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 65%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Obolon Kyiv's attack: 0.08 xG against 0.68 projected (−0.60). Shakhtar Donetsk produced 1.25 xG against 1.83 projected (−0.58).
The model against the result
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- 65% What happened
- Draw
- 25%
- Obolon Kyiv
- 11%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Obolon Kyiv produced 0.60 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 3
- On target
- 5
- 1
- Inside the box
- 10
- 1
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.03
Recent form
2.45 xG created 0.91 xGA
- W 1.58 created, 2.05 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- W 1.90 created, 0.46 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- W 2.74 created, 0.73 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- W 2.56 created, 1.39 conceded against Veres Rivne
- W 2.37 created, 0.37 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- D 3.57 created, 0.48 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
0.70 xG created 1.93 xGA
- D 0.25 created, 0.78 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- L 0.05 created, 2.54 conceded against Metalist 1925
- L 0.42 created, 4.19 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- D 1.75 created, 0.93 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- W 1.62 created, 0.62 conceded against Veres Rivne
- L 0.09 created, 2.50 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 qualified edges flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Obolon Kyiv to win | 23.00 | +141.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 7.50 | +84.8% | Lost |
| Obolon Kyiv to score | 3.25 | +69.3% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 3.50 | +62.5% | Lost |
| Obolon Kyiv 2+ goals | 10.00 | +41.2% | Lost |
| Shakhtar Donetsk at most 1 goal | 3.25 | +40.9% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +11.2% | Won |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to score | 8.00 | +9.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 64.9% | 83.6% | −18.7 pp | 1.54 |
| Draw | 24.6% | 12.4% | +12.3 pp | 4.06 |
| Obolon Kyiv | 10.5% | 4.0% | +6.5 pp | 9.52 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk to score | 86.3% | 88.3% | −2.0 pp | 1.16 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to score | 13.7% | 11.7% | +2.0 pp | 7.29 |
| Obolon Kyiv to score | 52.1% | 29.1% | +23.0 pp | 1.92 |
| Obolon Kyiv not to score | 47.9% | 70.9% | −23.0 pp | 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 26.9% | +19.5 pp | 2.15 |
| Both teams not to score | 53.6% | 73.1% | −19.5 pp | 1.87 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals | 56.6% | 70.9% | −14.3 pp | 1.77 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk at most 1 goal | 43.4% | 29.1% | +14.3 pp | 2.31 |
| Obolon Kyiv 2+ goals | 14.1% | 9.3% | +4.8 pp | 7.08 |
| Obolon Kyiv at most 1 goal | 85.9% | 90.7% | −4.8 pp | 1.16 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | 76.6% | −1.1 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.5% | 23.4% | +1.1 pp | 4.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 55.3% | −8.2 pp | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 44.7% | +8.2 pp | 1.89 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Shakhtar Donetsk sample
- 20 matches
- Obolon Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 41 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.