Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 12h to kick-offZoria Luhansk – Chornomorets Odesa
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Zoria Luhansk
- 44%
- Draw
- 32%
- Chornomorets Odesa
- 24%
| Zoria Luhansk | Draw | Chornomorets Odesa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.26 | 3.17 | 4.13 |
- Total goals
- 2.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Zoria Luhansk
44% Zoria Luhansk to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 11th
- Zoria Luhansk attack v Chornomorets Odesa defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 13th
- Zoria Luhansk defence v Chornomorets Odesa attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.29 vs -0.76
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.39 – 1.00
- Zoria Luhansk v Chornomorets Odesa
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Zoria Luhansk | Chornomorets Odesa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.15 · 11th | 0.54 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.37 · 9th | (better) 1.30 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.22 · 9th | -0.76 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.20 · 9th | 0.74 · 14th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.29 | -0.76 from 4 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Zoria Luhansk clean sheet
- 34%
- Zoria Luhansk 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.3%
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:0
- 10.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zoria Luhansk sample
- 20 matches
- Chornomorets Odesa sample
- 4 matches
- Home xG sample · Zoria Luhansk
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Chornomorets Odesa
- 1 match
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Chornomorets Odesa has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.