FC Lahti 2:1 IFK Mariehamn: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Tuesday, 08/09/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · Veikkausliiga

FC Lahti Home 2.06 xG

IFK Mariehamn Away 1.15 xG

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Lahti were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 64%. They won 2–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Lahti: 64% What happened
Draw: 22%
IFK Mariehamn: 14%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Lahti 2.25 2.06 -0.19

IFK Mariehamn 1.06 1.15 +0.09

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Lahti IFK Mariehamn

Shots: 14; 9
On target: 7; 4
Inside the box: 12; 5
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Lahti

1.94 xG created 1.47 xGA

W 3.36 created, 0.41 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 1.38 created, 1.61 conceded against Ilves
W 1.89 created, 0.42 conceded against FF Jaro
D 1.78 created, 3.02 conceded against Inter Turku
L 0.71 created, 1.17 conceded against KuPS
W 2.54 created, 2.19 conceded against SJK

IFK Mariehamn

1.84 xG created 1.92 xGA

D 2.55 created, 2.72 conceded against AC Oulu
L 2.08 created, 1.73 conceded against TPS
L 1.53 created, 2.04 conceded against Ilves
W 2.28 created, 0.85 conceded against SJK
W 1.47 created, 1.97 conceded against KuPS
W 1.15 created, 2.22 conceded against FF Jaro

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Lahti: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Lahti against IFK Mariehamn before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.80	+14.6%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.67	+10.8%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+5.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Lahti	64.2%	60.4%	+3.9 pp	1.56
Draw	21.9%	22.0%	−0.2 pp	4.57
IFK Mariehamn	13.9%	17.6%	−3.7 pp	7.18

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.7%	52.0%	+11.7 pp	1.57
Both teams not to score	36.3%	48.0%	−11.7 pp	2.75
Over 1.5 goals	87.7%	78.3%	+9.4 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.3%	21.7%	−9.4 pp	8.13
Over 2.5 goals	66.5%	56.3%	+10.2 pp	1.50
Under 2.5 goals	33.5%	43.7%	−10.2 pp	2.98

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Lahti sample: 19 matches
IFK Mariehamn sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.