HJK 2:1 Inter Turku: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Wednesday, 09/09/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · Veikkausliiga

HJK Home 1.22 xG

Inter Turku Away 0.48 xG

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Inter Turku were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. HJK won 2–1. The biggest difference was Inter Turku's attack: 0.48 xG against 1.53 projected (−1.05).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

HJK: 29% What happened
Draw: 30%
Inter Turku: 42%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

HJK 1.27 1.22 -0.05

Inter Turku 1.53 0.48 -1.05

Inter Turku produced 1.05 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

HJK Inter Turku

Shots: 11; 6
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 8; 3
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.08

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

HJK

1.97 xG created 0.99 xGA

W 2.36 created, 1.25 conceded against TPS
L 1.92 created, 1.41 conceded against SJK
W 1.66 created, 0.22 conceded against AC Oulu
W 1.87 created, 0.91 conceded against FF Jaro
L 1.43 created, 1.40 conceded against IF Gnistan
W 2.61 created, 0.72 conceded against Ilves

Inter Turku

2.51 xG created 1.05 xGA

W 3.53 created, 0.05 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
D 1.62 created, 0.65 conceded against FF Jaro
L 3.74 created, 1.78 conceded against IF Gnistan
W 0.87 created, 0.99 conceded against VPS
D 3.02 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Lahti
D 2.27 created, 1.03 conceded against TPS

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

HJK: 0 won · 4 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on HJK against Inter Turku before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Inter Turku 2+ goals	2.38	+10.5%	Lost
Inter Turku to win	2.55	+5.8%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.70	+5.8%	Won
Inter Turku to score	1.29	+4.1%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+1.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HJK	29.0%	36.4%	−7.4 pp	3.45
Draw	29.5%	28.0%	+1.6 pp	3.39
Inter Turku	41.5%	35.7%	+5.9 pp	2.41

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HJK to score	74.8%	73.1%	+1.7 pp	1.34
HJK not to score	25.2%	26.9%	−1.7 pp	3.97
Inter Turku to score	80.9%	73.1%	+7.8 pp	1.24
Inter Turku not to score	19.1%	26.9%	−7.8 pp	5.24
Both teams to score	62.2%	54.7%	+7.6 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	37.8%	45.3%	−7.6 pp	2.65
HJK 2+ goals	36.9%	39.2%	−2.3 pp	2.71
HJK at most 1 goal	63.1%	60.8%	+2.3 pp	1.58
Inter Turku 2+ goals	46.5%	39.2%	+7.3 pp	2.15
Inter Turku at most 1 goal	53.5%	60.8%	−7.3 pp	1.87
Over 1.5 goals	81.0%	75.0%	+6.0 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	19.0%	25.0%	−6.0 pp	5.26
Over 2.5 goals	54.5%	52.6%	+1.9 pp	1.84
Under 2.5 goals	45.5%	47.4%	−1.9 pp	2.20

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
HJK sample: 20 matches
Inter Turku sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.