Ilves 1:2 HJK: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

Ilves Home 0.72 xG

HJK Away 2.61 xG

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

HJK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was HJK's attack: 2.61 xG against 1.72 projected (+0.89). Ilves produced 0.72 xG against 1.56 projected (−0.84).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Ilves: 33%
Draw: 27%
HJK: 40% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Ilves 1.56 0.72 -0.84

HJK 1.72 2.61 +0.89

HJK produced 0.89 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Ilves HJK

Shots: 9; 16
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 4; 11
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.16

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Ilves

2.16 xG created 1.27 xGA

L 4.03 created, 1.12 conceded against FF Jaro
W 3.33 created, 0.98 conceded against TPS
W 1.61 created, 1.38 conceded against FC Lahti
L 1.27 created, 1.41 conceded against AC Oulu
W 2.04 created, 1.53 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 0.66 created, 1.18 conceded against VPS

HJK

1.91 xG created 0.97 xGA

W 2.21 created, 0.64 conceded against VPS
W 2.36 created, 1.25 conceded against TPS
L 1.92 created, 1.41 conceded against SJK
W 1.66 created, 0.22 conceded against AC Oulu
W 1.87 created, 0.91 conceded against FF Jaro
L 1.43 created, 1.40 conceded against IF Gnistan

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Ilves: 2 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Ilves against HJK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Ilves 2+ goals	2.50	+19.7%	Lost
Ilves to win	3.60	+18.9%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+8.1%	Won
Draw	4.00	+8.0%	Lost
Ilves to score	1.30	+6.3%	Won
HJK at most 1 goal	2.20	+3.2%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	+1.0%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.14	+0.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Ilves	33.0%	25.6%	+7.4 pp	3.03
Draw	27.0%	23.1%	+3.9 pp	3.70
HJK	40.0%	51.3%	−11.3 pp	2.50

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Ilves to score	81.7%	72.3%	+9.4 pp	1.22
Ilves not to score	18.3%	27.7%	−9.4 pp	5.48
HJK to score	84.5%	84.2%	+0.3 pp	1.18
HJK not to score	15.5%	15.8%	−0.3 pp	6.47
Both teams to score	70.5%	60.8%	+9.7 pp	1.42
Both teams not to score	29.5%	39.2%	−9.7 pp	3.39
Ilves 2+ goals	47.9%	37.5%	+10.4 pp	2.09
Ilves at most 1 goal	52.1%	62.5%	−10.4 pp	1.92
HJK 2+ goals	53.1%	57.7%	−4.6 pp	1.88
HJK at most 1 goal	46.9%	42.3%	+4.6 pp	2.13
Over 1.5 goals	87.6%	82.8%	+4.8 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.4%	17.2%	−4.8 pp	8.05
Over 2.5 goals	65.9%	61.0%	+4.9 pp	1.52
Under 2.5 goals	34.1%	39.0%	−4.9 pp	2.93

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Ilves sample: 20 matches
HJK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.