xgEdge

Expected goals

AIK expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Allsvenskan · after 19 matches · updated 1 Oct

AIK's attacking and defensive expected goals in Allsvenskan 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

AIK xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.57 xG per match
#11/16
Attack (xG per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Hammarby IF 2.66
#2 Djurgårdens IF 2.30
#3 IK Sirius 2.13
#4 Malmö FF 2.04
#5 IFK Göteborg 1.95
#6 BK Häcken 1.84
#7 GAIS 1.75
#8 IF Elfsborg 1.65
#9 Västerås SK 1.64
#10 Mjällby AIF 1.59
#11 AIK 1.57
#12 IF Brommapojkarna 1.45
#13 Kalmar FF 1.31
#14 Örgryte IS 1.26
#15 Degerfors IF 1.26
#16 Halmstads BK 1.10
League avg
1.71
Total
29.87 19 matches
Defence
2.29 xGA per match
#15/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Hammarby IF 1.11
#2 Djurgårdens IF 1.15
#3 IK Sirius 1.34
#4 GAIS 1.34
#5 BK Häcken 1.38
#6 Malmö FF 1.50
#7 IF Elfsborg 1.51
#8 IFK Göteborg 1.63
#9 Kalmar FF 1.74
#10 Degerfors IF 1.76
#11 IF Brommapojkarna 1.80
#12 Västerås SK 1.91
#13 Mjällby AIF 2.07
#14 Örgryte IS 2.26
#15 AIK 2.29
#16 Halmstads BK 2.41
League avg
1.71
Total
43.52 19 matches
xG difference
-0.72 xGD per match
#14/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Hammarby IF +1.54
#2 Djurgårdens IF +1.16
#3 IK Sirius +0.79
#4 Malmö FF +0.54
#5 BK Häcken +0.46
#6 GAIS +0.41
#7 IFK Göteborg +0.32
#8 IF Elfsborg +0.15
#9 Västerås SK -0.27
#10 IF Brommapojkarna -0.35
#11 Kalmar FF -0.43
#12 Mjällby AIF -0.48
#13 Degerfors IF -0.51
#14 AIK -0.72
#15 Örgryte IS -0.99
#16 Halmstads BK -1.31
League avg
0.00
Total
-13.65 19 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.00 xPts per match
#14/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Hammarby IF 2.24
#2 Djurgårdens IF 2.05
#3 IK Sirius 1.84
#4 BK Häcken 1.70
#5 Malmö FF 1.67
#6 GAIS 1.61
#7 IFK Göteborg 1.60
#8 IF Elfsborg 1.49
#9 IF Brommapojkarna 1.23
#10 Kalmar FF 1.21
#11 Västerås SK 1.21
#12 Degerfors IF 1.09
#13 Mjällby AIF 1.08
#14 AIK 1.00
#15 Örgryte IS 0.87
#16 Halmstads BK 0.61
League avg
1.40
Total
19.06 vs 33 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 19 of 22 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

AIK's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Allsvenskan. They rank #14 for xG difference at -0.72 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 29 goals are 0.87 below 29.87 xG, while 29 points are 9.94 above 19.06 xPts — both over the 19 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
29 29.87 -0.87 scored 0.87 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
32 43.52 -11.52 conceded 11.52 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
29 19.06 +9.94 9.94 points above xPts far outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

AIK are 0.87 goals below their xG after 19 matches.

Goals
29
xG
29.87
Gap
-0.87
Mon 13/04 Sun 19/04 Thu 23/04 Sun 03/05 Sun 10/05 Sun 17/05 Sun 24/05 Sat 30/05 Sun 05/07 Sat 11/07 Sat 18/07 Mon 27/07 Sun 02/08 Sat 08/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 30/08 Sat 12/09 Wed 16/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +0.70 +0.06 +0.51 +0.60 +1.29 +1.60 +2.23 +0.07 +1.28 +2.00 +2.08 +1.79 +0.44 +2.48 +3.99 +5.08 +2.85 +0.70 -0.87 +0.70 -0.64 +0.45 +0.09 +0.69 +0.31 +0.63 -2.16 +1.21 +0.72 +0.08 -0.29 -1.35 +2.04 +1.51 +1.09 -2.23 -2.15 -1.57 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
AIK: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Mon 13/04 IF Brommapojkarna 2 1.30 +0.70 +0.70
Sun 19/04 Kalmar FF 1 1.64 -0.64 +0.06
Thu 23/04 Degerfors IF 1 0.55 +0.45 +0.51
Sun 03/05 IF Elfsborg 1 0.91 +0.09 +0.60
Sun 10/05 Djurgårdens IF 2 1.31 +0.69 +1.29
Sun 17/05 Västerås SK 1 0.69 +0.31 +1.60
Sun 24/05 Hammarby IF 2 1.37 +0.63 +2.23
Sat 30/05 IK Sirius 0 2.16 -2.16 +0.07
Sun 05/07 IFK Göteborg 2 0.79 +1.21 +1.28
Sat 11/07 Mjällby AIF 2 1.28 +0.72 +2.00
Sat 18/07 GAIS 2 1.92 +0.08 +2.08
Mon 27/07 BK Häcken 0 0.29 -0.29 +1.79
Sun 02/08 Örgryte IS 0 1.35 -1.35 +0.44
Sat 08/08 Örgryte IS 4 1.96 +2.04 +2.48
Sun 16/08 Djurgårdens IF 3 1.49 +1.51 +3.99
Sun 30/08 Hammarby IF 3 1.91 +1.09 +5.08
Sat 12/09 Västerås SK 1 3.23 -2.23 +2.85
Wed 16/09 Mjällby AIF 1 3.15 -2.15 +0.70
Sun 20/09 Halmstads BK 1 2.57 -1.57 -0.87

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

AIK xG trend

Current form -0.39 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 19 matches. The worst was against Mjällby AIF on Sat 11/07 (-3.50).

npxG · last 6
2.39
npxGA · last 6
2.77
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.36 Mon 13/04 +0.32 Sun 19/04 -0.07 Thu 23/04 -0.21 Sun 03/05 -2.11 Sun 10/05 -1.12 Sun 17/05 -0.63 Sun 24/05 +0.37 Sat 30/05 -1.01 Sun 05/07 -3.50 Sat 11/07 +0.68 Sat 18/07 -2.67 Mon 27/07 -1.01 Sun 02/08 -0.43 Sat 08/08 -0.77 Sun 16/08 -2.35 Sun 30/08 -0.45 Sat 12/09 +1.01 Wed 16/09 +0.66 Sun 20/09 -0.72 season avg
AIK: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Mon 13/04 IF Brommapojkarna 1.30 1.66 -0.36 -0.36
Sun 19/04 Kalmar FF 1.64 1.32 +0.32 -0.02
Thu 23/04 Degerfors IF 0.55 0.62 -0.07 -0.04
Sun 03/05 IF Elfsborg 0.91 1.12 -0.21 -0.08
Sun 10/05 Djurgårdens IF 1.31 3.42 -2.11 -0.49
Sun 17/05 Västerås SK 0.69 1.81 -1.12 -0.59
Sun 24/05 Hammarby IF 1.37 2.00 -0.63 -0.60
Sat 30/05 IK Sirius 2.16 1.79 +0.37 -0.48
Sun 05/07 IFK Göteborg 0.79 1.80 -1.01 -0.54
Sat 11/07 Mjällby AIF 1.28 4.78 -3.50 -0.83
Sat 18/07 GAIS 1.92 1.24 +0.68 -0.69
Mon 27/07 BK Häcken 0.29 2.96 -2.67 -0.86
Sun 02/08 Örgryte IS 1.35 2.36 -1.01 -0.87
Sat 08/08 Örgryte IS 1.96 2.39 -0.43 -0.84
Sun 16/08 Djurgårdens IF 1.49 2.26 -0.77 -0.83
Sun 30/08 Hammarby IF 1.91 4.26 -2.35 -0.93
Sat 12/09 Västerås SK 3.23 3.68 -0.45 -0.90
Wed 16/09 Mjällby AIF 3.15 2.14 +1.01 -0.80
Sun 20/09 Halmstads BK 2.57 1.91 +0.66 -0.72

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.57 npxG and 2.29 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 7 hardest of 16 in Allsvenskan
+0.03 xG vs league average
Over 22 league matches
Last 5
number 6 hardest of 16 in Allsvenskan
+0.08 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.03 xG vs league average · over 22 matches · tied number 7 hardest of 16

  1. Halmstads BK Away −0.78
  2. Mjällby AIF Home −0.36
  3. Västerås SK Home −0.18
  4. Malmö FF Away +0.42
  5. Hammarby IF Home +1.29
  6. Djurgårdens IF Away +0.46
  7. Örgryte IS Away −0.67
  8. Örgryte IS Home −0.67
  9. BK Häcken Away +0.26
  10. GAIS Home +0.23
  11. Mjällby AIF Away −0.36
  12. IFK Göteborg Away +0.20
  13. IK Sirius Home +0.19
  14. Hammarby IF Away +1.29
  15. Västerås SK Away −0.18
  16. Djurgårdens IF Home +0.46
  17. IF Elfsborg Away +0.10
  18. Malmö FF Home +0.42
  19. Degerfors IF Away −0.27
  20. Kalmar FF Home −0.15
  21. IF Brommapojkarna Away −0.32
  22. Halmstads BK Home −0.78

Last 5

+0.08 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 6 hardest of 16

  1. Halmstads BK Away −0.78
  2. Mjällby AIF Home −0.36
  3. Västerås SK Home −0.18
  4. Malmö FF Away +0.42
  5. Hammarby IF Home +1.29

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

AIK shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. AIK take 12.9 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.12 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #10 in Allsvenskan for volume and #9 for quality. 62% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.9 shots per match
#10/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Hammarby IF 21.9
#2 IFK Göteborg 17.1
#3 Djurgårdens IF 15.7
#4 Malmö FF 14.9
#5 IK Sirius 14.9
#6 GAIS 14.5
#7 BK Häcken 14.2
#8 Kalmar FF 13.4
#9 Mjällby AIF 13.0
#10 AIK 12.9
#11 IF Elfsborg 12.8
#12 Halmstads BK 12.5
#13 Västerås SK 12.1
#14 IF Brommapojkarna 11.7
#15 Degerfors IF 11.1
#16 Örgryte IS 10.5
League avg
13.9
Total
245 shots from 19 matches
Chance quality
0.12 npxG per shot
#9/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Djurgårdens IF 0.15
#2 IK Sirius 0.14
#3 Malmö FF 0.14
#4 Västerås SK 0.14
#5 IF Elfsborg 0.13
#6 BK Häcken 0.13
#7 IF Brommapojkarna 0.12
#8 Mjällby AIF 0.12
#9 AIK 0.12
#10 Hammarby IF 0.12
#11 GAIS 0.12
#12 Örgryte IS 0.12
#13 IFK Göteborg 0.11
#14 Degerfors IF 0.11
#15 Kalmar FF 0.10
#16 Halmstads BK 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
29.87 npxG from 245 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.5 shots per match
#14/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Hammarby IF 8.6
#2 Djurgårdens IF 10.9
#3 BK Häcken 11.5
#4 IFK Göteborg 12.4
#5 GAIS 12.4
#6 IF Elfsborg 12.5
#7 Malmö FF 12.9
#8 IK Sirius 13.8
#9 Degerfors IF 13.9
#10 Kalmar FF 14.3
#11 Västerås SK 14.8
#12 IF Brommapojkarna 15.7
#13 Mjällby AIF 16.2
#14 AIK 16.5
#15 Halmstads BK 17.5
#16 Örgryte IS 17.9
League avg
13.9
Total
314 shots allowed from 19 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.14 npxGA per shot
#16/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 IK Sirius 0.10
#2 Djurgårdens IF 0.11
#3 GAIS 0.11
#4 IF Brommapojkarna 0.11
#5 Malmö FF 0.12
#6 BK Häcken 0.12
#7 IF Elfsborg 0.12
#8 Kalmar FF 0.12
#9 Örgryte IS 0.13
#10 Degerfors IF 0.13
#11 Mjällby AIF 0.13
#12 Hammarby IF 0.13
#13 Västerås SK 0.13
#14 IFK Göteborg 0.13
#15 Halmstads BK 0.14
#16 AIK 0.14
League avg
0.12
Total
43.52 npxGA from 314 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

62% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 152 of 245 shots over 19 matches

Shots allowed, location

70% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 220 of 314 shots allowed over 19 matches

How the shot figures are made →

AIK home and away xG

AIK per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 10 8 with xG 12 11 with xG
xG / match 2.08 1.20
xGA / match 2.53 2.12
xGD / match -0.44 -0.92
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.21 0.86

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every AIK match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
12 11 with xG
xG / match
1.20
xGA / match
2.12
xGD / match
-0.92
Points
20 of 36
  1. Sun 20/09 Halmstads BK A Best underlying xG 2.57 xGA 1.91 xGD +0.66
  2. Mon 07/09 Malmö FF A
  3. Sun 16/08 Djurgårdens IF A xG 1.49 xGA 2.26 xGD -0.77
  4. Sat 08/08 Örgryte IS A xG 1.96 xGA 2.39 xGD -0.43
  5. Mon 27/07 BK Häcken A xG 0.29 xGA 2.96 xGD -2.67
  6. Sat 11/07 Mjällby AIF A Against the chances xG 1.28 xGA 4.78 xGD -3.50
  7. Sun 05/07 IFK Göteborg A Against the chances xG 0.79 xGA 1.80 xGD -1.01
  8. Sun 24/05 Hammarby IF A xG 1.37 xGA 2.00 xGD -0.63
  9. Sun 17/05 Västerås SK A xG 0.69 xGA 1.81 xGD -1.12
  10. Sun 03/05 IF Elfsborg A xG 0.91 xGA 1.12 xGD -0.21
  11. Thu 23/04 Degerfors IF A xG 0.55 xGA 0.62 xGD -0.07
  12. Mon 13/04 IF Brommapojkarna A xG 1.30 xGA 1.66 xGD -0.36

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.78. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

AIK in Allsvenskan

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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