Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 19:30
13d 18h to kick-offSV Ried – Austria Wien
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SV Ried
- 43%
- Draw
- 31%
- Austria Wien
- 27%
| SV Ried | Draw | Austria Wien | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.35 | 3.24 | 3.77 |
- Total goals
- 2.55
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans SV Ried
43% SV Ried to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 5th
- SV Ried attack v Austria Wien defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 11th
- SV Ried defence v Austria Wien attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.10 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.44 – 1.12
- SV Ried v Austria Wien
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SV Ried | Austria Wien |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.96 · 4th | 0.74 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.75 · 6th | 1.85 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.22 · 5th | -1.12 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.40 · 6th | 0.77 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.10 | -0.89 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- SV Ried clean sheet
- 30%
- SV Ried 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.8%
- 2:1
- 10.6%
- 1:0
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SV Ried sample
- 20 matches
- Austria Wien sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SV Ried
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Austria Wien
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.