Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 15h to kick-offTSV Hartberg – Wolfsberger AC
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- TSV Hartberg
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- Wolfsberger AC
- 30%
| TSV Hartberg | Draw | Wolfsberger AC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.58 | 3.25 | 3.28 |
- Total goals
- 2.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans TSV Hartberg
39% TSV Hartberg to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 12th
- TSV Hartberg attack v Wolfsberger AC defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 7th
- TSV Hartberg defence v Wolfsberger AC attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.62 vs -2.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.40 – 1.23
- TSV Hartberg v Wolfsberger AC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | TSV Hartberg | Wolfsberger AC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.01 · 11th | (better) 1.14 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.02 · 11th | 2.53 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) -1.01 · 10th | -1.39 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 0.79 · 10th | 0.70 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.62 | -2.04 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- TSV Hartberg clean sheet
- 26%
- TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.7%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:2
- 8.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- TSV Hartberg sample
- 20 matches
- Wolfsberger AC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · TSV Hartberg
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Wolfsberger AC
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.