Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 10h to kick-offWSG Tirol – Grazer AK 1902
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- WSG Tirol
- 40%
- Draw
- 32%
- Grazer AK 1902
- 27%
| WSG Tirol | Draw | Grazer AK 1902 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.49 | 3.08 | 3.64 |
- Total goals
- 2.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans WSG Tirol
40% WSG Tirol to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 8th
- WSG Tirol attack v Grazer AK 1902 defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 8th
- WSG Tirol defence v Grazer AK 1902 attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.03 vs -0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.30 – 1.05
- WSG Tirol v Grazer AK 1902
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | WSG Tirol | Grazer AK 1902 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.52 · 6th | 1.14 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.76 · 8th | (better) 1.75 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.24 · 7th | -0.61 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.32 · 7th | 1.20 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.03 | -0.50 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- WSG Tirol clean sheet
- 32%
- WSG Tirol 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 1:0
- 10.0%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- WSG Tirol sample
- 20 matches
- Grazer AK 1902 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · WSG Tirol
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Grazer AK 1902
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.