Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
1. FC Köln – Borussia Dortmund
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- 1. FC Köln
- 36%
- Draw
- 29%
- Borussia Dortmund
- 35%
| 1. FC Köln | Draw | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.75 | 3.46 | 2.88 |
- Total goals
- 2.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model can't separate them
36% 1. FC Köln to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 1st
- 1. FC Köln attack v Borussia Dortmund defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 8th
- 1. FC Köln defence v Borussia Dortmund attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.39 vs +1.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.48 – 1.45
- 1. FC Köln v Borussia Dortmund
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | 1. FC Köln | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.97 · 7th from 4 matches | 1.66 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.98 · 10th from 4 matches | (better) 0.93 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.01 · 8th from 4 matches | (better) +0.73 · 5th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.40 · 8th from 4 matches | (better) 1.95 · 4th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.39 | (better) +1.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- 1. FC Köln clean sheet
- 21%
- 1. FC Köln 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.0%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:2
- 9.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FC Köln sample
- 20 matches
- Borussia Dortmund sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · 1. FC Köln
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Borussia Dortmund
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.