Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:30
Full timeVfB Stuttgart 0:1 Borussia Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. Borussia Dortmund won 1–0. The biggest difference was VfB Stuttgart's attack: 1.15 xG against 1.76 projected (−0.61).
Goals
- 70' Maximilian Beier Borussia Dortmund · 0.29 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- VfB Stuttgart
- 42%
- Draw
- 27%
- Borussia Dortmund
- 32% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
VfB Stuttgart produced 0.61 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 13
- On target
- 5
- 2
- Inside the box
- 8
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.79
- 0.80
- Set-piece xG
- 0.09
- 0.53
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.87 for VfB Stuttgart.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 2.21 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- VfB Stuttgart
- Borussia Dortmund
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.06 xG created 2.54 xGA
- D 1.57 created, 2.47 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
- W 3.04 created, 0.54 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- D 1.32 created, 2.56 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
- L 0.79 created, 4.06 conceded against FC Bayern München
- W 3.47 created, 2.86 conceded against 1. FC Köln
- L 2.16 created, 2.76 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
1.75 xG created 1.06 xGA
- L 0.49 created, 2.20 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
- W 1.94 created, 1.12 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
- W 2.74 created, 0.49 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
- W 1.53 created, 0.91 conceded against Hamburger SV
- W 2.02 created, 1.17 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
- W 1.76 created, 0.49 conceded against SC Paderborn 07
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +6.4% | Won |
| Borussia Dortmund not to score | 5.50 | +4.0% | Lost |
| VfB Stuttgart to win | 2.45 | +2.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | +1.7% | Won |
| Draw | 3.75 | +0.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 41.7% | 38.7% | +3.1 pp | 2.40 |
| Draw | 26.7% | 25.3% | +1.5 pp | 3.74 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 31.5% | 36.1% | −4.6 pp | 3.17 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart to score | 85.1% | 82.8% | +2.3 pp | 1.17 |
| VfB Stuttgart not to score | 14.9% | 17.2% | −2.3 pp | 6.73 |
| Borussia Dortmund to score | 81.1% | 82.8% | −1.7 pp | 1.23 |
| Borussia Dortmund not to score | 18.9% | 17.2% | +1.7 pp | 5.29 |
| Both teams to score | 70.4% | 68.7% | +1.7 pp | 1.42 |
| Both teams not to score | 29.6% | 31.3% | −1.7 pp | 3.38 |
| VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals | 54.4% | 53.7% | +0.8 pp | 1.84 |
| VfB Stuttgart at most 1 goal | 45.6% | 46.3% | −0.8 pp | 2.19 |
| Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals | 46.8% | 53.7% | −6.8 pp | 2.14 |
| Borussia Dortmund at most 1 goal | 53.2% | 46.3% | +6.8 pp | 1.88 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.7% | 85.4% | +2.3 pp | 1.14 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12.3% | 14.6% | −2.3 pp | 8.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.1% | 68.2% | −2.1 pp | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.9% | 31.8% | +2.1 pp | 2.95 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- VfB Stuttgart sample
- 20 matches
- Borussia Dortmund sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.