1. FC Köln 1:2 Borussia Dortmund: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 07/03/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

1. FC Köln Home 1.14 xG · 14 shots

Borussia Dortmund Away 1.95 xG · 13 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

16' Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund · 0.46 xG chance 0–1
60' Maximilian Beier Borussia Dortmund · 0.63 xG chance 0–2
88' Jakub Kamiński 1. FC Köln · 0.11 xG chance 1–2

The shots behind it

1. FC Köln Borussia Dortmund

Shots: 14; 13
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 12; 11
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.15
Open play xG: 1.18; 1.36
Set-piece xG: 0.01; 0.55
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.17 for 1. FC Köln and 1.95 for Borussia Dortmund.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 3.10 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

1. FC Köln
Borussia Dortmund
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

1. FC Köln

1.12 xG created 1.80 xGA

L 1.29 created, 2.23 conceded against SC Freiburg
W 1.24 created, 1.27 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
L 1.05 created, 1.92 conceded against RB Leipzig
L 1.59 created, 2.24 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
D 1.07 created, 1.47 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
L 0.48 created, 1.65 conceded against FC Augsburg

Borussia Dortmund

1.79 xG created 1.72 xGA

W 1.89 created, 1.24 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 3.32 created, 2.26 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
W 1.27 created, 1.45 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
W 1.80 created, 1.52 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
D 1.39 created, 1.81 conceded against RB Leipzig
L 1.04 created, 2.05 conceded against FC Bayern München

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

1. FC Köln: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Borussia Dortmund 1:0 1. FC Köln 25/10/2025 xG 1.90 – 0.39

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.