1. FSV Mainz 05 2:1 1. FC Heidenheim: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Tuesday, 13/01/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

1. FSV Mainz 05 Home 1.39 xG · 13 shots

1. FC Heidenheim Away 1.55 xG · 15 shots

21 The chances were evenly matched

Goals

30' Silvan Widmer 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.33 xG chance 1–0
49' Nadiem Amiri 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
60' Stefan Schimmer 1. FC Heidenheim · 0.77 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

1. FSV Mainz 05 1. FC Heidenheim

Shots: 13; 15
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 11; 10
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.88; 1.33
Set-piece xG: 0.52; 0.26
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.39 for 1. FSV Mainz 05 and 1.62 for 1. FC Heidenheim.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 2.99 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Heidenheim
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

1. FSV Mainz 05

0.97 xG created 2.66 xGA

D 2.03 created, 1.38 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
L 0.11 created, 4.60 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 0.97 created, 1.85 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
D 0.60 created, 4.50 conceded against FC Bayern München
D 1.12 created, 0.30 conceded against FC St. Pauli
D 1.01 created, 3.35 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin

1. FC Heidenheim

1.43 xG created 2.04 xGA

L 0.33 created, 2.18 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
W 0.59 created, 0.97 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 2.22 created, 0.84 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 2.44 created, 0.80 conceded against FC St. Pauli
L 1.04 created, 4.44 conceded against FC Bayern München
D 1.93 created, 2.99 conceded against 1. FC Köln

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.