1. FSV Mainz 05 1:1 TSG Hoffenheim: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Friday, 21/11/2025 at 20:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

1. FSV Mainz 05 Home 2.03 xG · 17 shots

TSG Hoffenheim Away 1.38 xG · 20 shots

11 1. FSV Mainz 05 had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

8' Andreas Hanche Olsen (o.g.) TSG Hoffenheim · 0.10 xG chance 0–1
76' Danny da Costa 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.20 xG chance 1–1

The shots behind it

1. FSV Mainz 05 TSG Hoffenheim

Shots: 17; 20
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 16; 13
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.08
Open play xG: 1.01; 1.03
Set-piece xG: 1.02; 0.47
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.38 for TSG Hoffenheim.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 3.53 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

1. FSV Mainz 05
TSG Hoffenheim
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

1. FSV Mainz 05

0.97 xG created 1.84 xGA

L 0.48 created, 1.44 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
L 0.67 created, 1.91 conceded against Hamburger SV
L 1.66 created, 3.48 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
L 1.45 created, 1.94 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
D 1.42 created, 1.04 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
L 0.16 created, 1.21 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt

TSG Hoffenheim

1.90 xG created 1.28 xGA

D 2.54 created, 1.31 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 1.12 created, 0.94 conceded against 1. FC Köln
W 2.34 created, 0.99 conceded against FC St. Pauli
W 2.37 created, 1.11 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
W 1.23 created, 1.54 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
W 1.82 created, 1.81 conceded against RB Leipzig

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.