Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – 1. FSV Mainz 05
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 54%
- Draw
- 25%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 22%
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Draw | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.86 | 4.07 | 4.64 |
- Total goals
- 3.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Bayer 04 Leverkusen
54% Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 7th
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen attack v 1. FSV Mainz 05 defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 5th
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen defence v 1. FSV Mainz 05 attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.86 vs +0.47
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.05 – 1.31
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen v 1. FSV Mainz 05
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.48 · 2nd from 4 matches | 2.24 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.94 · 4th from 4 matches | 1.55 · 7th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.54 · 2nd from 4 matches | +0.69 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.34 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.82 · 6th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.86 | +0.47 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen clean sheet
- 24%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.0%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 3:1
- 7.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen sample
- 20 matches
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.