Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 15:30
34d 15h to kick-off1. FSV Mainz 05 – FC Bayern München
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 31%
- Draw
- 26%
- FC Bayern München
- 43%
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Draw | FC Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.21 | 3.84 | 2.34 |
- Total goals
- 3.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Bayern München
43% FC Bayern München to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 7th
- FC Bayern München attack v 1. FSV Mainz 05 defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 5th
- FC Bayern München defence v 1. FSV Mainz 05 attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.86 vs +0.47
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.58 – 1.84
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 v FC Bayern München
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.24 · 3rd from 4 matches | (better) 3.14 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.55 · 7th from 4 matches | (better) 0.57 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.69 · 6th from 4 matches | (better) +2.57 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.82 · 6th from 4 matches | (better) 2.76 · 1st from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.47 | (better) +1.86 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- FC Bayern München clean sheet
- 18%
- FC Bayern München 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.1%
- 1:2
- 9.8%
- 2:1
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 sample
- 20 matches
- FC Bayern München sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Bayern München
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.