Friday, 30/10/2026 at 20:30
26d 17h to kick-offSV 07 Elversberg – 1. FSV Mainz 05
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SV 07 Elversberg
- 32%
- Draw
- 26%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 42%
| SV 07 Elversberg | Draw | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.16 | 3.78 | 2.38 |
- Total goals
- 3.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans 1. FSV Mainz 05
42% 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 17th
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 attack v SV 07 Elversberg defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 11th
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 defence v SV 07 Elversberg attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs -0.64
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.57 – 1.80
- SV 07 Elversberg v 1. FSV Mainz 05
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SV 07 Elversberg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.38 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) 2.24 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.02 · 11th from 4 matches | (better) 1.55 · 7th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.64 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) +0.69 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.98 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) 1.82 · 6th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.64 from 4 matches | (better) +0.47 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet
- 18%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.5%
- 1:2
- 9.9%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SV 07 Elversberg sample
- 4 matches
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SV 07 Elversberg
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Warnings
- SV 07 Elversberg has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.