Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Eintracht Frankfurt – SV Werder Bremen
Model updated 5 October, 09:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- 38%
- Draw
- 30%
- SV Werder Bremen
- 32%
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Draw | SV Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.62 | 3.30 | 3.16 |
- Total goals
- 2.70
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Eintracht Frankfurt
38% Eintracht Frankfurt to win
- Attack
- 13th vs 4th
- Eintracht Frankfurt attack v SV Werder Bremen defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 16th
- Eintracht Frankfurt defence v SV Werder Bremen attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.03 vs -0.60
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.42 – 1.29
- Eintracht Frankfurt v SV Werder Bremen
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Eintracht Frankfurt | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.98 · 6th from 4 matches | 1.33 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.05 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) 1.55 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.07 · 9th from 4 matches | -0.22 · 10th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.36 · 9th from 4 matches | 1.16 · 10th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.03 | -0.60 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet
- 25%
- Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Eintracht Frankfurt sample
- 20 matches
- SV Werder Bremen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · SV Werder Bremen
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.