Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 15:30
Full timeEintracht Frankfurt 2:2 SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was SC Freiburg's attack: 3.09 xG against 1.29 projected (+1.80). Eintracht Frankfurt produced 2.18 xG against 1.49 projected (+0.69).
Goals
- 10' Younes Ebnoutalib Eintracht Frankfurt · 0.54 xG chance 1–0
- 34' Derry Scherhant SC Freiburg · 0.11 xG chance 1–1
- 36' Jonathan Burkardt Eintracht Frankfurt · 0.35 xG chance 2–1
- 48' Yuito Suzuki SC Freiburg · 0.19 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- 40%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- SC Freiburg
- 30%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SC Freiburg produced 1.80 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 22
- On target
- 3
- 7
- Inside the box
- 9
- 17
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 1.07
- 1.21
- Set-piece xG
- 0.39
- 1.53
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.42 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2.74 for SC Freiburg.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 4.20 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- SC Freiburg
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.68 xG created 1.50 xGA
- L 0.65 created, 0.62 conceded against Hamburger SV
- L 1.12 created, 1.94 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
- D 2.56 created, 1.32 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
- D 1.47 created, 1.84 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
- L 2.22 created, 1.13 conceded against FC Augsburg
- W 2.04 created, 2.12 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
1.42 xG created 0.91 xGA
- D 0.94 created, 0.82 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
- L 0.41 created, 1.98 conceded against Hamburger SV
- W 1.41 created, 1.24 conceded against RB Leipzig
- W 1.94 created, 0.48 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
- W 1.24 created, 0.77 conceded against SC Paderborn 07
- W 2.60 created, 0.19 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg not to score | 5.00 | +23.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | +20.6% | Lost |
| SC Freiburg at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +13.9% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.75 | +11.2% | Won |
| Eintracht Frankfurt not to score | 5.50 | +10.1% | Lost |
| Eintracht Frankfurt at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +9.9% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.50 | +6.6% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.75 | +4.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 39.9% | 38.0% | +1.8 pp | 2.51 |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.4% | +4.3 pp | 3.37 |
| SC Freiburg | 30.5% | 36.6% | −6.1 pp | 3.28 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt to score | 80.0% | 82.8% | −2.8 pp | 1.25 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt not to score | 20.0% | 17.2% | +2.8 pp | 5.00 |
| SC Freiburg to score | 75.2% | 81.1% | −5.8 pp | 1.33 |
| SC Freiburg not to score | 24.8% | 18.9% | +5.8 pp | 4.04 |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 66.3% | −4.4 pp | 1.62 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.1% | 33.7% | +4.4 pp | 2.62 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals | 45.1% | 53.7% | −8.6 pp | 2.22 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt at most 1 goal | 54.9% | 46.3% | +8.6 pp | 1.82 |
| SC Freiburg 2+ goals | 37.9% | 50.0% | −12.1 pp | 2.64 |
| SC Freiburg at most 1 goal | 62.1% | 50.0% | +12.1 pp | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | 82.8% | −2.2 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.4% | 17.2% | +2.2 pp | 5.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 63.6% | −9.6 pp | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 36.4% | +9.6 pp | 2.18 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Eintracht Frankfurt sample
- 20 matches
- SC Freiburg sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.