Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Hamburger SV – FC Schalke 04
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Hamburger SV
- 42%
- Draw
- 28%
- FC Schalke 04
- 30%
| Hamburger SV | Draw | FC Schalke 04 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.40 | 3.53 | 3.33 |
- Total goals
- 3.00
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Hamburger SV
42% Hamburger SV to win
- Attack
- 18th vs 15th
- Hamburger SV attack v FC Schalke 04 defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 14th
- Hamburger SV defence v FC Schalke 04 attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.73 vs -0.78
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.62 – 1.37
- Hamburger SV v FC Schalke 04
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Hamburger SV | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.91 · 17th from 4 matches | (better) 1.32 · 15th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches | 2.11 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -1.12 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) -0.79 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.71 · 17th from 4 matches | (better) 0.92 · 14th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.73 | -0.78 from 4 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Hamburger SV clean sheet
- 23%
- Hamburger SV 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.6%
- 2:1
- 10.4%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- FC Schalke 04 sample
- 4 matches
- Home xG sample · Hamburger SV
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Schalke 04
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Warnings
- FC Schalke 04 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.