Hamburger SV 3:2 SV Werder Bremen: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Sunday, 07/12/2025 at 15:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

Hamburger SV Home 1.31 xG · 12 shots

SV Werder Bremen Away 0.71 xG · 10 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

45' Jens Stage SV Werder Bremen · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
63' Albert Sambi Lokonga Hamburger SV · 0.18 xG chance 1–1
75' Luka Vušković Hamburger SV · 0.08 xG chance 2–1
78' Justin Njinmah SV Werder Bremen · 0.29 xG chance 2–2
84' Yussuf Poulsen Hamburger SV · 0.17 xG chance 3–2

The shots behind it

Hamburger SV SV Werder Bremen

Shots: 12; 10
On target: 6; 3
Inside the box: 8; 3
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.18; 0.55
Set-piece xG: 0.08; 0.12
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.31 for Hamburger SV and 0.71 for SV Werder Bremen.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 1.93 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Hamburger SV
SV Werder Bremen
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Hamburger SV

1.38 xG created 1.44 xGA

L 1.53 created, 1.06 conceded against RB Leipzig
L 2.77 created, 0.37 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
L 1.09 created, 3.72 conceded against 1. FC Köln
D 0.57 created, 1.03 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
L 1.36 created, 1.70 conceded against FC Augsburg
W 0.98 created, 0.75 conceded against VfB Stuttgart

SV Werder Bremen

1.12 xG created 1.43 xGA

D 1.33 created, 3.00 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
W 0.95 created, 0.58 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
D 1.04 created, 1.42 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
W 1.45 created, 0.57 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
L 0.80 created, 2.10 conceded against RB Leipzig
D 1.17 created, 0.94 conceded against 1. FC Köln

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.