RB Leipzig 2:2 Borussia Dortmund: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 21/02/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

RB Leipzig Home 1.81 xG · 14 shots

Borussia Dortmund Away 1.39 xG · 12 shots

22 RB Leipzig had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

20' Christoph Baumgartner RB Leipzig · 0.40 xG chance 1–0
39' Christoph Baumgartner RB Leipzig · 0.27 xG chance 2–0
50' Rômulo (o.g.) Borussia Dortmund · 0.10 xG chance 2–1
90' Fábio Silva Borussia Dortmund · 0.16 xG chance 2–2

The shots behind it

RB Leipzig Borussia Dortmund

Shots: 14; 12
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 13; 10
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.12
Open play xG: 1.39; 0.93
Set-piece xG: 0.42; 0.52
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.39 for Borussia Dortmund.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 3.26 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

RB Leipzig
Borussia Dortmund
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

RB Leipzig

1.88 xG created 1.88 xGA

L 2.45 created, 4.56 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 1.69 created, 1.26 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
D 1.09 created, 1.45 conceded against FC St. Pauli
L 1.43 created, 2.33 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
W 1.92 created, 1.05 conceded against 1. FC Köln
D 2.69 created, 0.62 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg

Borussia Dortmund

2.32 xG created 1.26 xGA

W 2.42 created, 0.52 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
W 3.20 created, 0.54 conceded against FC St. Pauli
W 1.89 created, 1.24 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 3.32 created, 2.26 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
W 1.27 created, 1.45 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
W 1.80 created, 1.52 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

RB Leipzig: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Borussia Dortmund 1:1 RB Leipzig 04/10/2025 xG 0.89 – 1.09

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.