Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 15:30
Full time1. FSV Mainz 05 1:3 Eintracht Frankfurt
1. FSV Mainz 05 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. Eintracht Frankfurt won 3–1. The biggest difference was Eintracht Frankfurt's attack: 2.04 xG against 1.05 projected (+0.99).
Goals
- 9' Can Uzun Eintracht Frankfurt · 0.63 xG chance 0–1
- 45' Jonathan Burkardt Eintracht Frankfurt · 0.29 xG chance 0–2
- 60' Can Uzun Eintracht Frankfurt · 0.68 xG chance 0–3
- 89' Phillip Tietz 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.09 xG chance 1–3
The model against the result
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 58%
- Draw
- 25%
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- 17% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Eintracht Frankfurt produced 0.99 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 11
- On target
- 5
- 5
- Inside the box
- 11
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.19
- Open play xG
- 0.74
- 1.27
- Set-piece xG
- 0.90
- 0.83
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.63 for 1. FSV Mainz 05 and 2.15 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 4.56 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.42 xG created 1.53 xGA
- L 2.69 created, 2.21 conceded against FC Bayern München
- W 2.54 created, 0.84 conceded against FC St. Pauli
- L 1.57 created, 2.68 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
- W 3.71 created, 2.53 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
- D 1.23 created, 0.73 conceded against SC Paderborn 07
- W 2.77 created, 0.19 conceded against Hamburger SV
1.52 xG created 1.47 xGA
- D 1.11 created, 2.00 conceded against FC Augsburg
- L 0.65 created, 0.62 conceded against Hamburger SV
- L 1.12 created, 1.94 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
- D 2.56 created, 1.32 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
- D 1.47 created, 1.84 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
- L 2.22 created, 1.13 conceded against FC Augsburg
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | +20.5% | Lost |
| Eintracht Frankfurt not to score | 3.50 | +12.8% | Lost |
| Eintracht Frankfurt at most 1 goal | 1.53 | +10.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.20 | +4.7% | Lost |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win | 1.75 | +2.1% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.63 | +1.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 58.3% | 53.9% | +4.4 pp | 1.71 |
| Draw | 24.9% | 22.5% | +2.5 pp | 4.01 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 16.7% | 23.6% | −6.9 pp | 5.97 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 to score | 88.2% | 86.4% | +1.7 pp | 1.13 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 not to score | 11.8% | 13.6% | −1.7 pp | 8.44 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt to score | 67.8% | 73.1% | −5.3 pp | 1.48 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt not to score | 32.2% | 26.9% | +5.3 pp | 3.10 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 64.5% | −3.3 pp | 1.63 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.8% | 35.5% | +3.3 pp | 2.58 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals | 60.7% | 60.8% | −0.1 pp | 1.65 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 at most 1 goal | 39.3% | 39.2% | +0.1 pp | 2.54 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals | 28.2% | 39.2% | −11.1 pp | 3.55 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt at most 1 goal | 71.8% | 60.8% | +11.1 pp | 1.39 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.1% | 84.2% | −0.2 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.9% | 15.8% | +0.2 pp | 6.27 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 68.2% | −8.4 pp | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 31.8% | +8.4 pp | 2.49 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 sample
- 20 matches
- Eintracht Frankfurt sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 36 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 36 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.