Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 16:00
16d 19h to kick-offCharlton Athletic – Sheffield United
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Charlton Athletic
- 37%
- Draw
- 32%
- Sheffield United
- 31%
| Charlton Athletic | Draw | Sheffield United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.69 | 3.14 | 3.22 |
- Total goals
- 2.47
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Charlton Athletic
37% Charlton Athletic to win
- Attack
- 23rd vs 19th
- Charlton Athletic attack v Sheffield United defence
- Defence
- 22nd vs 20th
- Charlton Athletic defence v Sheffield United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.28 vs -0.37
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.30 – 1.17
- Charlton Athletic v Sheffield United
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Charlton Athletic | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.00 · 21st | (better) 1.06 · 20th |
| xGA / match | 1.57 · 16th | (better) 1.49 · 15th |
| xGD / match | -0.57 · 20th | (better) -0.43 · 19th |
| xPts / match | 1.00 · 21st | (better) 1.07 · 19th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.29 | -0.37 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Charlton Athletic clean sheet
- 28%
- Charlton Athletic 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.3%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 0:0
- 8.8%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Charlton Athletic sample
- 20 matches
- Sheffield United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Charlton Athletic
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Sheffield United
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.