Tuesday, 13/10/2026 at 20:45
Full timeBurnley 2:2 Charlton Athletic
Burnley were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Charlton Athletic's attack: 2.13 xG against 0.94 projected (+1.19). Burnley produced 1.08 xG against 1.47 projected (−0.39).
Goals
- 36' Jacob Bruun Larsen Burnley · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
- 50' Kayne Ramsay Charlton Athletic · 0.72 xG chance 1–1
- 57' Largie Ramazani Burnley · 0.04 xG chance 2–1
- 90' Ivan Mesík Charlton Athletic · 0.03 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Burnley
- 48%
- Draw
- 31% What happened
- Charlton Athletic
- 21%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Charlton Athletic produced 1.19 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 9
- On target
- 4
- 4
- Inside the box
- 8
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.23
- Open play xG
- 0.72
- 0.43
- Set-piece xG
- 0.37
- 1.69
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.08 for Burnley and 2.13 for Charlton Athletic.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 3.20 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Burnley
- Charlton Athletic
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.09 xG created 1.44 xGA
0.89 xG created 1.38 xGA
- D 0.39 created, 0.57 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- L 0.61 created, 2.14 conceded against Stoke City
- D 0.48 created, 1.10 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- D 0.82 created, 0.40 conceded against Portsmouth
- L 1.26 created, 2.60 conceded against Cardiff City
- D 1.78 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged2 won5 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.80 | +17.0% | Won |
| Burnley at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +16.8% | Lost |
| Charlton Athletic to win | 5.50 | +16.2% | Lost |
| Burnley not to score | 5.50 | +12.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +12.0% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.00 | +5.7% | Lost |
| Charlton Athletic to score | 1.57 | +0.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 48.1% | 58.4% | −10.3 pp | 2.08 |
| Draw | 30.8% | 24.6% | +6.2 pp | 3.25 |
| Charlton Athletic | 21.1% | 17.0% | +4.1 pp | 4.73 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley to score | 79.6% | 82.8% | −3.2 pp | 1.26 |
| Burnley not to score | 20.4% | 17.2% | +3.2 pp | 4.89 |
| Charlton Athletic to score | 63.9% | 58.9% | +5.0 pp | 1.56 |
| Charlton Athletic not to score | 36.1% | 41.1% | −5.0 pp | 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 51.5% | +1.2 pp | 1.90 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.3% | 48.5% | −1.2 pp | 2.11 |
| Burnley 2+ goals | 44.4% | 55.7% | −11.4 pp | 2.25 |
| Burnley at most 1 goal | 55.6% | 44.3% | +11.4 pp | 1.80 |
| Charlton Athletic 2+ goals | 23.8% | 25.0% | −1.2 pp | 4.20 |
| Charlton Athletic at most 1 goal | 76.2% | 75.0% | +1.2 pp | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | 76.2% | −2.6 pp | 1.36 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 23.8% | +2.6 pp | 3.78 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 52.6% | −8.6 pp | 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 47.4% | +8.6 pp | 1.79 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Burnley sample
- 9 matches
- Charlton Athletic sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Burnley has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.