Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 20:45
12d 23h to kick-offPreston North End – Sheffield United
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Preston North End
- 42%
- Draw
- 30%
- Sheffield United
- 28%
| Preston North End | Draw | Sheffield United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.38 | 3.32 | 3.60 |
- Total goals
- 2.67
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Preston North End
42% Preston North End to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 19th
- Preston North End attack v Sheffield United defence
- Defence
- 23rd vs 20th
- Preston North End defence v Sheffield United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.57 vs -0.37
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.48 – 1.19
- Preston North End v Sheffield United
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Preston North End | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.24 · 16th | 1.06 · 20th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.46 · 14th | 1.49 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.22 · 16th | -0.43 · 19th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.20 · 16th | 1.07 · 19th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.57 | (better) -0.37 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Preston North End clean sheet
- 28%
- Preston North End 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:2
- 8.2%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Preston North End sample
- 20 matches
- Sheffield United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Preston North End
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Sheffield United
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.