Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 13:30
Full timeWatford 2:0 Charlton Athletic
Watford were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Watford's attack: 2.78 xG against 1.25 projected (+1.53).
Goals
- 58' Luca Kjerrumgaard Watford · 0.66 xG chance 1–0
- 90' Jordan Zemura Watford · 0.53 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Watford
- 36% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Charlton Athletic
- 32%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Watford produced 1.53 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 14
- On target
- 10
- 3
- Inside the box
- 12
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 2.59
- 0.51
- Set-piece xG
- 0.23
- 0.77
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.84 for Watford and 1.25 for Charlton Athletic.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
36 shots · 4.10 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Watford
- Charlton Athletic
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.96 xG created 2.03 xGA
- L 1.26 created, 1.14 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- W 1.44 created, 2.48 conceded against Preston North End
- L 0.39 created, 1.50 conceded against Stoke City
- L 0.57 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
- L 0.64 created, 1.94 conceded against Burnley
- L 1.46 created, 3.67 conceded against Cardiff City
1.18 xG created 1.47 xGA
- L 0.61 created, 2.14 conceded against Stoke City
- D 0.48 created, 1.10 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- D 0.82 created, 0.40 conceded against Portsmouth
- L 1.26 created, 2.60 conceded against Cardiff City
- D 1.78 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
- D 2.13 created, 1.08 conceded against Burnley
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 qualified edges flagged2 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.30 | +6.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.91 | +6.2% | Won |
| Charlton Athletic at most 1 goal | 1.50 | +0.6% | Won |
| Watford at most 1 goal | 1.57 | +0.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 36.1% | 37.5% | −1.4 pp | 2.77 |
| Draw | 32.3% | 28.4% | +3.9 pp | 3.10 |
| Charlton Athletic | 31.6% | 34.1% | −2.5 pp | 3.17 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford to score | 74.4% | 73.1% | +1.2 pp | 1.34 |
| Watford not to score | 25.6% | 26.9% | −1.2 pp | 3.90 |
| Charlton Athletic to score | 71.6% | 72.3% | −0.7 pp | 1.40 |
| Charlton Athletic not to score | 28.4% | 27.7% | +0.7 pp | 3.53 |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | 55.7% | −0.6 pp | 1.81 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.8% | 44.3% | +0.6 pp | 2.23 |
| Watford 2+ goals | 36.3% | 41.1% | −4.8 pp | 2.75 |
| Watford at most 1 goal | 63.7% | 58.9% | +4.8 pp | 1.57 |
| Charlton Athletic 2+ goals | 32.9% | 37.5% | −4.6 pp | 3.04 |
| Charlton Athletic at most 1 goal | 67.1% | 62.5% | +4.6 pp | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | 74.5% | −0.5 pp | 1.35 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 25.5% | +0.5 pp | 3.84 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 50.0% | −5.6 pp | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 50.0% | +5.6 pp | 1.80 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Watford sample
- 20 matches
- Charlton Athletic sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.