Wednesday, 14/10/2026 at 21:00
Full timeLincoln City 0:6 West Ham United
West Ham United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 6–0. The biggest difference was West Ham United's attack: 3.20 xG against 1.29 projected (+1.91). Lincoln City produced 0.35 xG against 1.27 projected (−0.92).
Goals
- 45' Konstantinos Mavropanos West Ham United · 0.22 xG chance 0–1
- 48' Edvin Austbø West Ham United · 0.03 xG chance 0–2
- 50' Jarrod Bowen West Ham United · 0.10 xG chance 0–3
- 75' Pablo Felipe West Ham United · 0.20 xG chance 0–4
- 79' Tomáš Souček West Ham United · 0.10 xG chance 0–5
- 89' Tomáš Souček West Ham United · 0.64 xG chance 0–6
The model against the result
- Lincoln City
- 34%
- Draw
- 31%
- West Ham United
- 35% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
West Ham United produced 1.91 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 5
- 32
- On target
- 0
- 12
- Inside the box
- 2
- 17
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.00
- 2.47
- Set-piece xG
- 0.36
- 0.75
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.35 for Lincoln City and 3.20 for West Ham United.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
37 shots · 3.58 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Lincoln City
- West Ham United
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.40 xG created 0.79 xGA
- D 1.46 created, 0.24 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- D 2.27 created, 0.77 conceded against Southampton
- W 0.66 created, 0.58 conceded against Preston North End
- W 0.53 created, 1.53 conceded against Bristol City
- L 2.11 created, 0.92 conceded against Swansea City
- L 1.39 created, 0.68 conceded against Sheffield United
2.39 xG created 1.17 xGA
- W 2.05 created, 0.94 conceded against Wolverhampton
- W 3.79 created, 0.11 conceded against Derby County
- W 2.22 created, 1.56 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 2.96 created, 0.44 conceded against Wrexham
- D 1.87 created, 2.68 conceded against Millwall
- D 1.44 created, 1.27 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged0 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln City to win | 5.50 | +86.4% | Lost |
| Lincoln City 2+ goals | 3.75 | +38.3% | Lost |
| West Ham United not to score | 5.50 | +37.4% | Lost |
| West Ham United at most 1 goal | 1.91 | +19.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.75 | +17.7% | Lost |
| Lincoln City to score | 1.53 | +14.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +6.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln City | 33.9% | 17.0% | +16.9 pp | 2.95 |
| Draw | 31.4% | 25.0% | +6.4 pp | 3.19 |
| West Ham United | 34.7% | 58.0% | −23.3 pp | 2.88 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln City to score | 74.8% | 60.8% | +14.0 pp | 1.34 |
| Lincoln City not to score | 25.2% | 39.2% | −14.0 pp | 3.97 |
| West Ham United to score | 75.0% | 82.8% | −7.8 pp | 1.33 |
| West Ham United not to score | 25.0% | 17.2% | +7.8 pp | 4.00 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 50.0% | +8.0 pp | 1.73 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.0% | 50.0% | −8.0 pp | 2.38 |
| Lincoln City 2+ goals | 36.9% | 25.0% | +11.9 pp | 2.71 |
| Lincoln City at most 1 goal | 63.1% | 75.0% | −11.9 pp | 1.58 |
| West Ham United 2+ goals | 37.6% | 51.5% | −13.9 pp | 2.66 |
| West Ham United at most 1 goal | 62.4% | 48.5% | +13.9 pp | 1.60 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | 74.5% | +2.2 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 25.5% | −2.2 pp | 4.28 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 50.0% | −1.9 pp | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 50.0% | +1.9 pp | 1.93 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 2 warningsShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lincoln City sample
- 9 matches
- West Ham United sample
- 9 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Lincoln City has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
- West Ham United has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.