Friday, 27/11/2026 at 21:00
37d 0h to kick-offSouthampton – Middlesbrough
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Southampton
- 28%
- Draw
- 28%
- Middlesbrough
- 44%
| Southampton | Draw | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.54 | 3.57 | 2.29 |
- Total goals
- 3.02
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Middlesbrough
44% Middlesbrough to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 13th
- Middlesbrough attack v Southampton defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 3rd
- Middlesbrough defence v Southampton attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs +0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.34 – 1.67
- Southampton v Middlesbrough
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Southampton | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.83 · 5th | (better) 1.98 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.31 · 9th | (better) 1.02 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +0.53 · 5th | (better) +0.96 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.73 · 5th | (better) 2.03 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.54 | (better) +0.86 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Middlesbrough clean sheet
- 23%
- Middlesbrough 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 1:2
- 10.6%
- 2:1
- 8.3%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Southampton sample
- 20 matches
- Middlesbrough sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Southampton
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Middlesbrough
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.