Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 21:00
13d 1h to kick-offWest Bromwich Albion – Southampton
Model updated 21 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- West Bromwich Albion
- 36%
- Draw
- 31%
- Southampton
- 33%
| West Bromwich Albion | Draw | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.81 | 3.23 | 2.99 |
- Total goals
- 2.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% West Bromwich Albion to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 13th
- West Bromwich Albion attack v Southampton defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 3rd
- West Bromwich Albion defence v Southampton attack
- Recent xG form
- 0.00 vs +0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.32 – 1.28
- West Bromwich Albion v Southampton
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | West Bromwich Albion | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.29 · 14th | (better) 1.83 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 1.44 · 13th | (better) 1.31 · 9th |
| xGD / match | -0.15 · 15th | (better) +0.53 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.25 · 15th | (better) 1.73 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.00 | (better) +0.54 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- West Bromwich Albion clean sheet
- 25%
- West Bromwich Albion 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.7%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- West Bromwich Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Southampton sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · West Bromwich Albion
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Southampton
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.