Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 16:00
30d 20h to kick-offMiddlesbrough – Bristol City
Model updated 21 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Middlesbrough
- 62%
- Draw
- 25%
- Bristol City
- 13%
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.61 | 4.08 | 7.43 |
- Total goals
- 2.82
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Middlesbrough
62% Middlesbrough to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 12th
- Middlesbrough attack v Bristol City defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 17th
- Middlesbrough defence v Bristol City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs +0.53
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.94 – 0.88
- Middlesbrough v Bristol City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Middlesbrough | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.98 · 2nd | 1.32 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.02 · 2nd | 1.35 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.96 · 2nd | -0.03 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.03 · 1st | 1.44 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.86 | +0.53 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Middlesbrough clean sheet
- 39%
- Middlesbrough 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.5%
- 2:1
- 11.7%
- 2:0
- 11.4%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Middlesbrough sample
- 20 matches
- Bristol City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Middlesbrough
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Bristol City
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.