Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 13:30
30d 17h to kick-offSouthampton – Derby County
Model updated 21 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Southampton
- 52%
- Draw
- 27%
- Derby County
- 21%
| Southampton | Draw | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.93 | 3.64 | 4.83 |
- Total goals
- 2.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Southampton
52% Southampton to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 17th
- Southampton attack v Derby County defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 16th
- Southampton defence v Derby County attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.54 vs -0.16
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.75 – 1.09
- Southampton v Derby County
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Southampton | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.83 · 5th | 0.96 · 23rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.31 · 9th | 1.65 · 20th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.53 · 5th | -0.69 · 21st |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.73 · 5th | 1.07 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.54 | -0.16 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Southampton clean sheet
- 31%
- Southampton 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.8%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 8.9%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Southampton sample
- 20 matches
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Southampton
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Derby County
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.