Tuesday, 20/10/2026 at 20:45
Full timeWolverhampton 1:1 Portsmouth
Wolverhampton were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Wolverhampton's attack: 1.01 xG against 1.45 projected (−0.44). Portsmouth produced 0.65 xG against 0.96 projected (−0.31).
Goals
- 62' Jordan James Wolverhampton · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
- 86' Terry Devlin Portsmouth · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Wolverhampton
- 47%
- Draw
- 31% What happened
- Portsmouth
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Wolverhampton produced 0.44 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 8
- On target
- 2
- 1
- Inside the box
- 7
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.99
- 0.00
- Set-piece xG
- 0.02
- 0.67
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.65 for Portsmouth.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 1.68 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Wolverhampton
- Portsmouth
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.79 xG created 0.97 xGA
- D 2.47 created, 1.39 conceded against Birmingham City
- W 1.57 created, 0.63 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 1.95 created, 0.29 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- L 0.68 created, 0.90 conceded against Middlesbrough
- L 2.23 created, 1.62 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 1.82 created, 1.00 conceded against Burnley
1.44 xG created 1.06 xGA
- W 2.07 created, 1.37 conceded against Cardiff City
- D 0.40 created, 0.82 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- D 1.60 created, 0.59 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- L 1.18 created, 1.28 conceded against Southampton
- W 2.22 created, 2.01 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 1.19 created, 0.29 conceded against Norwich City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged4 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.20 | +30.4% | Won |
| Portsmouth to win | 5.75 | +26.7% | Lost |
| Wolverhampton not to score | 6.00 | +25.5% | Lost |
| Wolverhampton at most 1 goal | 2.20 | +23.9% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +11.9% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.00 | +5.5% | Lost |
| Portsmouth to score | 1.57 | +1.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton | 46.9% | 61.3% | −14.4 pp | 2.13 |
| Draw | 31.0% | 22.4% | +8.7 pp | 3.22 |
| Portsmouth | 22.0% | 16.3% | +5.7 pp | 4.54 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton to score | 79.1% | 84.2% | −5.1 pp | 1.26 |
| Wolverhampton not to score | 20.9% | 15.8% | +5.1 pp | 4.78 |
| Portsmouth to score | 64.8% | 58.9% | +5.9 pp | 1.54 |
| Portsmouth not to score | 35.2% | 41.1% | −5.9 pp | 2.84 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 51.5% | +1.6 pp | 1.88 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.9% | 48.5% | −1.6 pp | 2.13 |
| Wolverhampton 2+ goals | 43.7% | 57.7% | −14.0 pp | 2.29 |
| Wolverhampton at most 1 goal | 56.3% | 42.3% | +14.0 pp | 1.78 |
| Portsmouth 2+ goals | 24.7% | 25.0% | −0.3 pp | 4.05 |
| Portsmouth at most 1 goal | 75.3% | 75.0% | +0.3 pp | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | 76.2% | −2.6 pp | 1.36 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 23.8% | +2.6 pp | 3.79 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 52.6% | −8.6 pp | 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.9% | 47.4% | +8.6 pp | 1.79 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wolverhampton sample
- 10 matches
- Portsmouth sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.