Burnley 1:2 Wolverhampton: xG & match report · Championship

Friday, 16/10/2026 at 21:00

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Match report · Championship

Burnley Home 1.00 xG · 15 shots

Wolverhampton Away 1.82 xG · 20 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Wolverhampton were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Wolverhampton's attack: 1.82 xG against 1.41 projected (+0.41).

Goals

20' Jamie Vardy Burnley · 0.33 xG chance 1–0
39' Fer López Wolverhampton · 0.22 xG chance 1–1
72' Tawanda Chirewa Wolverhampton · 0.15 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Burnley: 28%
Draw: 31%
Wolverhampton: 41% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Burnley 1.15 1.00 -0.15

Wolverhampton 1.41 1.82 +0.41

Wolverhampton produced 0.41 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Burnley Wolverhampton

Shots: 15; 20
On target: 4; 8
Inside the box: 8; 12
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.73; 1.35
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.48
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.00 for Burnley and 1.83 for Wolverhampton.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 2.81 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Burnley
Wolverhampton
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Burnley

1.16 xG created 1.59 xGA

L 0.26 created, 1.06 conceded against Bristol City
D 1.50 created, 1.35 conceded against Wrexham
L 1.73 created, 2.63 conceded against Swansea City
D 0.45 created, 1.75 conceded against Derby County
W 1.94 created, 0.64 conceded against Watford
D 1.08 created, 2.13 conceded against Charlton Athletic

Wolverhampton

1.64 xG created 1.15 xGA

L 0.94 created, 2.05 conceded against West Ham United
D 2.47 created, 1.39 conceded against Birmingham City
W 1.57 created, 0.63 conceded against Sheffield United
W 1.95 created, 0.29 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
L 0.68 created, 0.90 conceded against Middlesbrough
L 2.23 created, 1.62 conceded against Bolton Wanderers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 qualified edges flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Burnley against Wolverhampton before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.60	+11.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+3.4%	Lost
Burnley at most 1 goal	1.50	+1.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Burnley	27.8%	29.6%	−1.8 pp	3.60
Draw	30.9%	26.3%	+4.6 pp	3.23
Wolverhampton	41.3%	44.1%	−2.8 pp	2.42

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Burnley to score	71.0%	72.3%	−1.3 pp	1.41
Burnley not to score	29.0%	27.7%	+1.3 pp	3.45
Wolverhampton to score	78.5%	78.3%	+0.2 pp	1.27
Wolverhampton not to score	21.5%	21.7%	−0.2 pp	4.65
Both teams to score	57.6%	57.7%	−0.1 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.4%	42.3%	+0.1 pp	2.36
Burnley 2+ goals	32.2%	37.5%	−5.3 pp	3.11
Burnley at most 1 goal	67.8%	62.5%	+5.3 pp	1.47
Wolverhampton 2+ goals	42.5%	46.3%	−3.9 pp	2.36
Wolverhampton at most 1 goal	57.5%	53.7%	+3.9 pp	1.74
Over 1.5 goals	76.8%	76.2%	+0.6 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.2%	23.8%	−0.6 pp	4.31
Over 2.5 goals	48.3%	52.6%	−4.3 pp	2.07
Under 2.5 goals	51.7%	47.4%	+4.3 pp	1.93

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Burnley sample: 10 matches
Wolverhampton sample: 9 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Wolverhampton has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.