Wolverhampton 1:3 Bolton Wanderers: xG & match report · Championship

Tuesday, 13/10/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Championship

Wolverhampton Home 2.23 xG · 19 shots

Bolton Wanderers Away 1.62 xG · 10 shots

13 The result went against the chances

Wolverhampton were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. Bolton Wanderers won 3–1. The biggest difference was Bolton Wanderers's attack: 1.62 xG against 0.92 projected (+0.70). Wolverhampton produced 2.23 xG against 1.57 projected (+0.66).

Goals

28' Atsuki Ito Bolton Wanderers · 0.07 xG chance 0–1
50' Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Wolverhampton · 0.19 xG chance 1–1
72' Sam Dalby Bolton Wanderers · 0.83 xG chance 1–2
82' Josh Sheehan Bolton Wanderers · 0.02 xG chance 1–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Wolverhampton: 52%
Draw: 29%
Bolton Wanderers: 19% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Wolverhampton 1.57 2.23 +0.66

Bolton Wanderers 0.92 1.62 +0.70

Bolton Wanderers produced 0.70 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Wolverhampton Bolton Wanderers

Shots: 19; 10
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 13; 7
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.17
Open play xG: 1.67; 1.23
Set-piece xG: 0.56; 0.43
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.62 for Bolton Wanderers.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 3.88 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Wolverhampton
Bolton Wanderers
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Wolverhampton

1.71 xG created 1.02 xGA

W 2.66 created, 0.83 conceded against Stoke City
L 0.94 created, 2.05 conceded against West Ham United
D 2.47 created, 1.39 conceded against Birmingham City
W 1.57 created, 0.63 conceded against Sheffield United
W 1.95 created, 0.29 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
L 0.68 created, 0.90 conceded against Middlesbrough

Bolton Wanderers

1.56 xG created 1.71 xGA

L 1.91 created, 2.21 conceded against Sheffield United
L 1.15 created, 2.63 conceded against Millwall
L 1.56 created, 2.22 conceded against West Ham United
W 0.48 created, 1.79 conceded against Cardiff City
W 1.10 created, 0.69 conceded against Norwich City
L 3.13 created, 0.74 conceded against Stoke City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged3 won4 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Wolverhampton against Bolton Wanderers before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Wolverhampton not to score	9.00	+62.7%	Lost
Bolton Wanderers to win	7.50	+42.5%	Won
Wolverhampton at most 1 goal	2.75	+42.4%	Won
Draw	4.50	+32.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	+27.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+22.7%	Lost
Bolton Wanderers to score	1.62	+2.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Wolverhampton	51.6%	67.1%	−15.5 pp	1.94
Draw	29.4%	20.6%	+8.9 pp	3.40
Bolton Wanderers	19.0%	12.3%	+6.7 pp	5.26

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Wolverhampton to score	81.9%	89.4%	−7.4 pp	1.22
Wolverhampton not to score	18.1%	10.6%	+7.4 pp	5.53
Bolton Wanderers to score	63.2%	57.7%	+5.5 pp	1.58
Bolton Wanderers not to score	36.8%	42.3%	−5.5 pp	2.72
Both teams to score	53.5%	51.5%	+2.1 pp	1.87
Both teams not to score	46.5%	48.5%	−2.1 pp	2.15
Wolverhampton 2+ goals	48.2%	66.3%	−18.1 pp	2.07
Wolverhampton at most 1 goal	51.8%	33.7%	+18.1 pp	1.93
Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals	23.2%	23.4%	−0.2 pp	4.31
Bolton Wanderers at most 1 goal	76.8%	76.6%	+0.2 pp	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	75.5%	81.1%	−5.6 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	24.5%	18.9%	+5.6 pp	4.08
Over 2.5 goals	46.5%	60.2%	−13.7 pp	2.15
Under 2.5 goals	53.5%	39.8%	+13.7 pp	1.87

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 2 warnings

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Wolverhampton sample: 8 matches
Bolton Wanderers sample: 9 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Wolverhampton has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Bolton Wanderers has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.