Wrexham 1:1 Derby County: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 27/09/2025 at 13:30

Full time

Match report · Championship

Wrexham Home 0.89 xG · 10 shots

Derby County Away 0.64 xG · 5 shots

11 Wrexham had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

59' Lewis O'Brien Wrexham · 0.34 xG chance 1–0
72' Ben Brereton Díaz Derby County · 0.04 xG chance 1–1

The shots behind it

Wrexham Derby County

Shots: 10; 5
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 5; 3
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.58; 0.63
Set-piece xG: 0.33; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.89 for Wrexham and 0.64 for Derby County.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

15 shots · 1.54 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Wrexham
Derby County
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Wrexham

1.51 xG created 2.45 xGA

L 1.88 created, 4.14 conceded against Southampton
L 2.01 created, 2.37 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
D 1.30 created, 2.67 conceded against Sheffield Wednesday
W 0.55 created, 1.76 conceded against Millwall
L 2.02 created, 1.43 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
W 1.30 created, 2.34 conceded against Norwich City

Derby County

0.75 xG created 1.68 xGA

L 0.39 created, 1.09 conceded against Stoke City
L 1.48 created, 3.26 conceded against Coventry City
D 0.47 created, 0.76 conceded against Bristol City
D 1.48 created, 2.91 conceded against Ipswich Town
W 0.32 created, 1.15 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
L 0.34 created, 0.90 conceded against Preston North End

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.