Friday, 23/10/2026 at 20:00
19d 18h to kick-offAEL Limassol – Aris Limassol
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- AEL Limassol
- 27%
- Draw
- 32%
- Aris Limassol
- 41%
| AEL Limassol | Draw | Aris Limassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.75 | 3.09 | 2.44 |
- Total goals
- 2.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Aris Limassol
41% Aris Limassol to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 6th
- Aris Limassol attack v AEL Limassol defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 10th
- Aris Limassol defence v AEL Limassol attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.42 vs -0.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.04 – 1.31
- AEL Limassol v Aris Limassol
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AEL Limassol | Aris Limassol |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.46 · 9th from 4 matches | (better) 1.71 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.42 · 5th from 4 matches | (better) 1.25 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.04 · 8th from 4 matches | (better) +0.46 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.51 · 7th from 4 matches | (better) 1.73 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.42 | (better) +0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Aris Limassol clean sheet
- 33%
- Aris Limassol 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.6%
- 0:1
- 10.2%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AEL Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Aris Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AEL Limassol
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Aris Limassol
- 1 match
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.