Pafos FC 0:2 AEL Limassol: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Cypriot First Division

Pafos FC Home 1.36 xG

AEL Limassol Away 1.45 xG

02 The chances were evenly matched

Pafos FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. AEL Limassol won 2–0. The biggest difference was AEL Limassol's attack: 1.45 xG against 0.77 projected (+0.68).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Pafos FC: 56%
Draw: 29%
AEL Limassol: 15% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Pafos FC 1.60 1.36 -0.24

AEL Limassol 0.77 1.45 +0.68

AEL Limassol produced 0.68 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Pafos FC AEL Limassol

Shots: 13; 11
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 9; 7
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Pafos FC

1.94 xG created 1.54 xGA

L 1.91 created, 2.05 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
W 1.34 created, 0.85 conceded against Aris Limassol
D 1.90 created, 1.56 conceded against AEK Larnaca
W 2.78 created, 2.20 conceded against Karmiotissa Polemidion
D 1.36 created, 1.21 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia
W 2.37 created, 1.35 conceded against AEK Larnaca

AEL Limassol

1.36 xG created 1.68 xGA

D 1.84 created, 1.13 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
L 1.12 created, 0.97 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia
W 0.80 created, 3.63 conceded against Akritas Chlorakas
W 1.73 created, 0.51 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta
L 0.08 created, 2.45 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
W 2.57 created, 1.36 conceded against Nea Salamina Famagusta

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Pafos FC: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged5 won3 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Pafos FC against AEL Limassol before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.10	+17.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.05	+16.7%	Won
Pafos FC at most 1 goal	2.25	+14.6%	Won
AEL Limassol to win	7.50	+12.3%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	4.00	+9.3%	Lost
Pafos FC not to score	6.00	+6.4%	Won
AEL Limassol to score	1.80	+2.2%	Won
Both teams to score	2.10	+1.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Pafos FC	56.4%	65.4%	−9.1 pp	1.77
Draw	28.7%	22.3%	+6.3 pp	3.49
AEL Limassol	15.0%	12.2%	+2.8 pp	6.68

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Pafos FC to score	82.3%	84.4%	−2.1 pp	1.22
Pafos FC not to score	17.7%	15.6%	+2.1 pp	5.64
AEL Limassol to score	56.8%	51.5%	+5.3 pp	1.76
AEL Limassol not to score	43.2%	48.5%	−5.3 pp	2.31
Both teams to score	48.4%	44.3%	+4.2 pp	2.07
Both teams not to score	51.6%	55.7%	−4.2 pp	1.94
Pafos FC 2+ goals	49.0%	58.9%	−9.8 pp	2.04
Pafos FC at most 1 goal	51.0%	41.1%	+9.8 pp	1.96
AEL Limassol 2+ goals	17.3%	18.6%	−1.3 pp	5.78
AEL Limassol at most 1 goal	82.7%	81.4%	+1.3 pp	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	72.7%	76.6%	−3.9 pp	1.38
Under 1.5 goals	27.3%	23.4%	+3.9 pp	3.66
Over 2.5 goals	43.1%	53.9%	−10.9 pp	2.32
Under 2.5 goals	56.9%	46.1%	+10.9 pp	1.76

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Pafos FC sample: 20 matches
AEL Limassol sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.