Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 17:00
7d 15h to kick-offAnorthosis Famagusta – Pafos FC
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Anorthosis Famagusta
- 23%
- Draw
- 30%
- Pafos FC
- 47%
| Anorthosis Famagusta | Draw | Pafos FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.31 | 3.38 | 2.12 |
- Total goals
- 2.64
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
Anorthosis Famagusta
- Model
- 23.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 13.9%
- Probability gap
- +9.3 pp
- Edge
- +50.9%
- Fair odds
- 4.31
- Market odds
- 6.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.52
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.6%
-
Draw
- Model
- 29.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 21.5%
- Probability gap
- +8.1 pp
- Edge
- +24.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.38
- Market odds
- 4.20 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.55
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.6%
-
Pafos FC
- Model
- 47.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 64.6%
- Probability gap
- −17.4 pp
- Edge
- −34.0%
- Fair odds
- 2.12
- Market odds
- 1.40 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.23
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.6%
Outcomes with value
Anorthosis Famagusta to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
Anorthosis Famagusta to win
Model 23.2% vs. bookmaker 13.9%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Pafos FC
47% Pafos FC to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 10th
- Pafos FC attack v Anorthosis Famagusta defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 14th
- Pafos FC defence v Anorthosis Famagusta attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.41 vs -0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.08 – 1.56
- Anorthosis Famagusta v Pafos FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Anorthosis Famagusta | Pafos FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.14 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 1.97 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.55 · 8th from 4 matches | 1.55 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.41 · 11th from 4 matches | (better) +0.42 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.09 · 10th from 4 matches | (better) 1.65 · 4th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.54 | (better) +0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Pafos FC clean sheet
- 31%
- Pafos FC 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.1%
- 1:2
- 11.2%
- 0:1
- 8.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Anorthosis Famagusta sample
- 20 matches
- Pafos FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Anorthosis Famagusta
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Pafos FC
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.