Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 17h to kick-offAPOEL Nicosia – ALS Omonia
Model updated 4 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- APOEL Nicosia
- 56%
- Draw
- 28%
- ALS Omonia
- 16%
| APOEL Nicosia | Draw | ALS Omonia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.78 | 3.59 | 6.31 |
- Total goals
- 2.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans APOEL Nicosia
56% APOEL Nicosia to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 13th
- APOEL Nicosia attack v ALS Omonia defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 8th
- APOEL Nicosia defence v ALS Omonia attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.20 vs -0.63
- xGD per match, last 3
- Projected goals
- 1.67 – 0.84
- APOEL Nicosia v ALS Omonia
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 3 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | APOEL Nicosia | ALS Omonia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.47 · 8th from 4 matches | (better) 1.52 · 7th from 3 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.68 · 1st from 4 matches | 2.15 · 13th from 3 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.80 · 2nd from 4 matches | -0.63 · 12th from 3 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.97 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.01 · 12th from 3 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.20 | -0.63 from 3 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- APOEL Nicosia clean sheet
- 40%
- APOEL Nicosia 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.4%
- 2:0
- 11.6%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- APOEL Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- ALS Omonia sample
- 3 matches
- Home xG sample · APOEL Nicosia
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · ALS Omonia
- 1 match
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 21:30
Warnings
- ALS Omonia has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.