Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 18:00
32d 20h to kick-offAPOEL Nicosia – Aris Limassol
Model updated 6 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- APOEL Nicosia
- 36%
- Draw
- 35%
- Aris Limassol
- 30%
| APOEL Nicosia | Draw | Aris Limassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.80 | 2.89 | 3.37 |
- Total goals
- 2.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans APOEL Nicosia
36% APOEL Nicosia to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 4th
- APOEL Nicosia attack v Aris Limassol defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 4th
- APOEL Nicosia defence v Aris Limassol attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.20 vs +0.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.12 – 1.01
- APOEL Nicosia v Aris Limassol
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | APOEL Nicosia | Aris Limassol |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.47 · 8th from 4 matches | (better) 1.71 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.68 · 1st from 4 matches | 1.25 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.80 · 2nd from 4 matches | +0.46 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.97 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.73 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.20 | (better) +0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 41% of the model's distribution.
- APOEL Nicosia clean sheet
- 34%
- APOEL Nicosia 2+ goals
- 31%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.6%
- 0:0
- 12.0%
- 1:0
- 11.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- APOEL Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- Aris Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · APOEL Nicosia
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Aris Limassol
- 1 match
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.