Friday, 16/10/2026 at 20:00
12d 17h to kick-offEnosis Neon Ypsona FC – Karmiotissa Polemidion
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- 45%
- Draw
- 30%
- Karmiotissa Polemidion
- 25%
| Enosis Neon Ypsona FC | Draw | Karmiotissa Polemidion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.24 | 3.32 | 3.96 |
- Total goals
- 2.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
45% Enosis Neon Ypsona FC to win
- Attack
- 13th vs 14th
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC attack v Karmiotissa Polemidion defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 11th
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC defence v Karmiotissa Polemidion attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.12 vs -1.13
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.51 – 1.12
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC v Karmiotissa Polemidion
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Enosis Neon Ypsona FC | Karmiotissa Polemidion |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.36 · 10th from 3 matches | 1.31 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.04 · 3rd from 3 matches | 2.43 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.32 · 6th from 3 matches | -1.13 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.62 · 5th from 3 matches | 0.65 · 14th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.12 | -1.13 from 4 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC clean sheet
- 30%
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.4%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:0
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC sample
- 20 matches
- Karmiotissa Polemidion sample
- 4 matches
- Home xG sample · Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Karmiotissa Polemidion
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Karmiotissa Polemidion has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.